Trump's Inaction Fails to Deter Putin Amid Rising Tensions

A week has passed since 19 Russian drones were sent towards NATO member Poland. Vladimir Putin is undoubtedly observing the reaction. However, nothing has occurred that is likely to deter him.

U.S. President Donald Trump is on a state visit to the United Kingdom and is meeting Prime Minister Keir Starmer on Thursday.

This meeting takes place just over a week after Russia carried out the most serious military violation of a NATO country in the alliance's history.

There was a time when the leaders of the U.S. and the UK together represented the great hope of the West and democracies. They were at the helm, steering the ship.

But this is not exactly Winston Churchill and Franklin D. Roosevelt meeting now. Or even Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher.

Previously, it would have been obvious that last week's drama in Poland would have dominated the morning's meeting between the leaders of the U.S. and the UK. How can the West and NATO clearly signal to Russia and Vladimir Putin that he is dangerously close to a red line now?

But few believe that will happen. And the signals from Trump are unlikely to have made Putin deeply regret last week's test of NATO's readiness. His comment on Truth Social was:

– What is Russia doing violating Poland's airspace with drones? Here we go.

He wrote "Here we go" in his post. It's a bit cryptic and can also be translated to something like, "they're at it again." Well.

But no real consequences. The EU had planned to introduce new sanctions against Russia this week, but they have been postponed after Trump – in another social media post – demanded that Europe stop all imports of gas and oil and also impose punitive tariffs on China and India.

Russia does not deny that the drones were Russian but claims it was not intended to fly over Poland. It's hard to disprove, and Trump has said that sure, it could have been a mistake.

"It was, in that case, 19 mistakes"

But it was, in that case, 19 mistakes. 19 drones of the Gerbera type, simpler models used as decoys for Ukrainian air defense to waste ammunition on.

They were also not equipped with explosives. But the violation was serious enough, and Poland and other leaders in Europe have no doubt that it was a planned action.

According to the Institute for the Study of War, the drones were also equipped with extra fuel tanks that increased their range. The German newspaper Welt reports that five of them were heading towards a NATO base.

Four of them were shot down, but by NATO fighter jets. The EU now promises to quickly provide funds so that NATO countries in the east can build a "drone wall."

Ukraine has a lot to teach NATO there and has had for some time. They are skilled at shooting down drones without using missiles that cost large sums.

It's hard to know what the purpose of the Russian violation was. There are probably several motives.

Putin constantly tests the boundaries and what he can get away with. Here he got a test of NATO's readiness and ability to quickly intervene against drones.

He may also hope that NATO, in response, will increase its own air defense at the expense of new military aid to Ukraine, that NATO will use more of its resources at home.

It's possible that Moscow will pay a price for last week's intrusion – a drone was also sent over Romania during the weekend – but so far, Putin does not see a glimpse of it.

So no, he is unlikely to change course now. Rather the opposite. Who would be surprised if Estonia, Lithuania – or Finland – are next in line for Russian tests?

Poland is clearly taking it seriously and has been for several years. The country now has NATO's third-largest army (they were ninth largest in 2014), but the Poles are also politically divided with a prime minister and president who do not see eye to eye and come from different parties.

But Donald Trump – who calls the war in Ukraine "Biden's war" or "Zelensky's war" – shows no great concern that Putin repeatedly ignores him and his wishes.

The whole idea of the NATO defense alliance is deterrence. That an opponent should not even consider military attacks, much less do anything in practice.

It also relies on credibility. How credible does Putin consider Trump to be?