
Swedish Defense Minister Warns of Putin's New War Plans
Defense Minister Pål Jonson warns of Vladimir Putin's new war plans following the conflict in Ukraine. "The day a ceasefire is reached, the Russian military presence in our part of Europe will increase significantly," he stated in a major interview with Expressen ahead of the NATO summit in The Hague. "We have a window of opportunity that we must use for a very intensive military buildup."
The minister also confirmed that Russia is already behind sabotage, disinformation, and cyberattacks in Sweden.
Defense Minister Pål Jonson will attend the NATO summit in The Hague on Tuesday, accompanied by Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson and Foreign Minister Maria Malmer Stenergard.
His message is clear: NATO members must agree on the new ambitious budget goal that stipulates five percent of GDP should be allocated to defense and "defense-related expenditures."
All eight parliamentary parties support him as Sweden now invests 300 billion SEK in defense.
"It is important for the long-term design of defense and security policy, and it provides the conditions for the Armed Forces to plan this major buildup long-term. But it is also a very strong signal to Russia—and to our NATO allies—that Sweden stands united and strong," says Pål Jonson.
Are you surprised that the Social Democrats, Green Party, and Left Party are also part of this?
"We have had a good cooperative climate when it comes to defense policy."
But you do not answer which units will be expanded and where new ones will be set up. Why not?
"The Supreme Commander must come with his military advice, as we need the profession's assessment of exactly how the buildup should proceed and in what order."
Shouldn't the Supreme Commander have already provided these bases?
"We have received a basis from the Armed Forces based on the military capabilities we have committed to fulfilling through NATO. But we need to work with greater precision. Now there is so much financial means being added, and we must also work on the order in which this should be implemented and what priorities need to be made in the short and long term. But one thing is clear: This will require a rapid buildup, especially in the coming years."
What concrete reinforcements will be noticed first?
"Stronger air defense, stronger long-range capability, stronger personnel supply."
"We Do This for Future Generations"
Half a year ago, the message from Denmark's Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen to the defense chief was: "Buy, buy, buy!" Is that what you are saying too?
"We started this journey a couple of years ago, so we are ahead of Denmark in this process. Since we took office, we have placed order authorizations for 254 billion."
Are we buying everything already?
"We have started the work, and we are very high in international comparison."
Why is it reasonable to send the bill to future generations?
"We do this for future generations. We do it because we want to live in peace, and therefore a strong defense capability is important. But we also have the third-lowest national debt within the EU, so we already have strong public finances."
The Social Democrats want to introduce a preparedness tax—why is it unreasonable?
"We fear that it could be inhibiting for growth. We have shown that we can double defense investments in four years while keeping the tax burden down. It is in that spirit that we want to work in the future as well."
What is your message to the NATO countries that today do not even reach two percent of GDP?
"That we expect them to reach two percent of GDP this year or possibly next. It is a matter of cohesion and credibility. It is very urgent now."
Pål Jonson recently participated in the defense ministers' meeting in Brussels, where a number of new agreements were signed—one of them concerns deepened cooperation around the Baltic Sea.
"This region has never been stronger than today. The cooperation between our countries is flourishing now that Sweden and Finland are also NATO members. It is also the region in the world that supports Ukraine per capita the most, and second most in real terms after the USA."
What is to be done around the Baltic Sea that is not already being done?
"I see opportunities to deepen the marine and maritime work. There is still much more to do here."
The Defense Minister mentions, among other things, innovation linked to unmanned systems, drones both above and below the water surface.
How do you assess the military threat to Sweden right now and over the next three-year period?
"We are not facing an immediate military threat from Russia, but we know that the day a ceasefire or peace agreement is reached, the Russian military presence in our part of Europe will increase significantly. Therefore, we must use these two to five years to strengthen our deterrence and defense capabilities. We have a window of opportunity that we must use for a very intensive buildup."
But peace in Ukraine can mean an increased threat to Sweden?
"Peace in Ukraine means that Russia reallocates its military resources and capabilities closer to our vicinity. What we have to relate to is that Russia has also learned important lessons from the war. They are better at electronic warfare, they are better at long-range capability, and they are better at handling drones than before the war broke out."
How well prepared are we in Sweden for hybrid attacks or gray zone operations?
"We have significantly stronger resilience now than we had three years ago. At the same time, we see that Russia has scaled up this type of activity. It can be pure sabotage attacks that we have seen. It can involve disinformation, cyberattacks, cyber espionage, and various types of activity between total peace and total war."
"Our intelligence and security services are working much more intensively now with this than they have done before."
How do you view the development in the Arctic, and what security challenges are most acute there?
"The strategic importance of the Arctic is increasing, and that has to do with the melting ice. There are natural resources there. And it also opens up new trade routes, where we also see that Russia is partly starting to reoccupy old military installations that it had in this area. We also see that China is more present in the Arctic."
Already last year, the Pentagon said that the Arctic is a critical region. Do you agree with that?
"Yes, there are strong reasons to think more about the Arctic from a security and defense perspective than was done five or ten years ago."
Isn't it reasonable then that Donald Trump wants to take over Greenland?
"No, that is a matter for Denmark and Greenland."
But what would it mean for Sweden if Greenland became American?
"It is not relevant. NATO's second paragraph states that different opinions between countries must be resolved in accordance with the UN Charter. We fully support Denmark."
How is the NATO summit affected by what is now happening in the Middle East, between Israel and Iran?
"It remains to be seen, but what we noticed on October 7 when Hamas carried out the terror attacks against Israelis was that some military resources and capabilities were moved from Ukraine and Europe to the Middle East. It may naturally be that the USA reallocates its military resources more to the Middle East."
That is already happening.
"Yes, they are. And then it remains to be seen if Iran will make direct attacks on American military installations. Then I foresee a very strong American retaliation. The other dimension, which is good for Ukraine, is that Iran's ability to support Russia with, for example, drones or ballistic missiles is weakened by Iran now having to devote more resources and capabilities to defending itself."
How convinced are you that Russia will one day be forced to leave Ukraine?
"Above all, I am convinced that Russia will not be more successful in the war. In 2024, they have managed to take another one percent of Ukraine's territory. This is not a successful operation for Russia."
Are you surprised that Russia was so bad?
"I am most surprised that they have continued to conduct this war despite having such an enormous casualty rate. This is a greater casualty rate than all other wars that Russia has had since World War II ended, it has significantly weakened the Russian armed forces."
How much is it a Russian war and how much is it Putin's war?
"I often get the question of why Putin is doing this. He is doing this because he wants to and because he believes he can."
What is your view of Vladimir Putin as a leader?
"You give me such big questions, haha. Obviously, Putin is a dictator, and the domestic political climate in Russia has significantly hardened. He is a political leader who is isolated and has not been successful in Ukraine."
How worried are you that Donald Trump will cause something or say something down in The Hague?
"I am actually hopeful and believe that it will be a good meeting. It is a success, of course, for the USA, but it is also good for the entire defense alliance that we will most likely agree on a new defense investment goal of five percent."
"It will fundamentally change Europe."