The upcoming Zapad 2025 military exercise, involving Russia and Belarus, is set to take place in September, raising concerns in the Baltic region. With potential participation of up to 150,000 soldiers, the exercise is seen as a possible threat, prompting Baltic countries to prepare evacuation plans. Despite fears, experts suggest the exercise is unlikely to pose a direct threat to neighboring countries.
Zapad 2025: Baltic States Brace for Massive Russian-Belarusian Military Exercise
Zapad 2025: Baltic States Brace for Massive Russian-Belarusian Military Exercise
The military exercise Zapad 2025, conducted jointly with Belarus, is scheduled for September.
Earlier this year, it was announced that Russia and Belarus plan a joint military exercise—Zapad 2025—starting in September. Both countries border Ukraine, where the full-scale Russian invasion is now in its third year.
The last time such a large number of Russian and Belarusian troops trained together was in September 2021, which was later seen as a dress rehearsal for the Ukraine war.
Concerns in Kiev and Vilnius
Latvia's Major General Andis Dilāns told Ukrainian Radio NV that the exercise could involve as many as 100,000-150,000 soldiers, reports SvD.
The official stance, however, is that the two countries will train against a potential invasion from the West, with around 13,000 participants. This is reported by outlets including the Kyiv Independent.
The upcoming exercise is causing concern in the Baltic countries, which have begun working on a joint evacuation plan.
Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaja previously told Euronews that the planned military exercises between Russia and Belarus this fall could indeed pose a threat.
"Don't forget that the last military exercises in Belarus ended with the attack on Ukraine," she told Euronews.
Meanwhile, experts believe the risk of a repeat of Zapad 2021 is unlikely, as Russia is preoccupied with Ukraine.
"It will not be as large," says Ryhor Nizhnikau, a Belarusian senior researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, to SvD.
"Not a Threat"
He also does not believe the exercise will pose a threat to neighboring countries.
"Even if it involves 10,000 or twice as many, it is not a threat to Poland or Lithuania," he tells SvD and continues.
"It will likely be a scenario to deter an invasion and to conduct a counterattack. We will likely see the general staff conducting strategic games, accompanied by exercises of the countries' joint military group."