Russia has recently violated the airspace of several European countries with drones and fighter jets. Kjell Engelbrekt, a professor at the Swedish Defence University, explains the possible motives behind these actions, including distracting from EU military discussions, creating discord between Europe and the US, and improving Russia's negotiation position.
Why Russia is Escalating Tensions: Expert Insights
Why Russia is Escalating Tensions: Expert Insights
Russia has recently violated the airspace of several European countries with drones and fighter jets. Why are these hostile activities increasing now, and what could be the consequences? Kjell Engelbrekt, a professor at the Swedish Defence University, offers some possible explanations.
Recently, 19 Russian drones were shot down in Poland. Shortly after, a Russian drone violated Romanian airspace. A few days later, three Russian fighter jets breached Estonian airspace for twelve minutes. Russia is now suspected of being behind drone incidents at airports in Copenhagen and Oslo.
What is this about? Kjell Engelbrekt, a political science professor at the Swedish Defence University, points to three main motives.
No European Troops in Ukraine
Currently, discussions are ongoing about the conditions under which EU countries might send military troops to Ukraine.
"I have considered that they want to show they are not losing the initiative in the war, and this relates to ongoing discussions about a European military presence, especially in western Ukraine. I believe this is what Russia is reacting to, trying to distract from that process," says Kjell Engelbrekt.
Russia targets countries in northeastern Europe because support for Ukraine is strongest there, the professor suggests.
"Moscow is trying to make us think: Can you really spare resources for a force in Ukraine, or do you need them yourselves?"
Kjell Engelbrekt believes they want to pressure politicians and military leaders and create anxiety among the populations.
Creating Discord
Kjell Engelbrekt believes Russia aims to create division, especially between Europe and the US, but perhaps also among European countries regarding how to respond to the Russian threat.
What can NATO do to stop the Russian escalation? The most important thing, says the professor, is to ensure a robust response from NATO.
"NATO has a strategic concept based on deterrence and defense. Defense is used when deterrence no longer works. Ideally, we want deterrence to work. When Russia acts as it does, it seems deterrence is not working. It must be made more robust," says Kjell Engelbrekt, continuing:
"There should be a robust response that is clear. Otherwise, deterrence does not work well."
The airspace violation in Estonia, which lasted twelve minutes, shows that Russian respect for NATO countries is low, the professor argues.
"If this lack of respect is shown, the rules of engagement should be made more robust. This could involve firing a warning shot first, and if that does not have an effect within a certain timeframe, a few minutes, then engaging the aircraft – shooting it down, simply. If such rules of engagement are in place, this will not be repeated, I believe," says Kjell Engelbrekt, continuing:
"But it is not certain that the rules of engagement are the problem; it could have been that communication and the decision chain did not work as they should."
Better Negotiation Position
It is also possible that Russian hostile activity against European countries aims to improve the country's negotiation position. As we head into colder times, advancing on the ground during autumn and winter is difficult. Even if they assess that they have the manpower, equipment, and economy to "ramp up" again in the spring, it is not certain they will get much further then.
"They are stuck in a situation where there is a kind of military equilibrium, and I believe Russia is trying to achieve the best possible negotiation position," says Kjell Engelbrekt.