Donald Trump's fluctuating stance on Russia and Ukraine leaves Europe in a precarious position. As Trump oscillates between diplomacy and aggression, European leaders are left uncertain about their security and future. Recent attacks in Kiev highlight the urgency for Europe to prepare for a future where it may need to defend itself without U.S. support.
Trump's Unpredictability: A False Hope for Europe?
Trump's Unpredictability: A False Hope for Europe?
Donald Trump seems to be irritated once again, offering some verbal reprimands to Vladimir Putin before the U.S. president changes his mind again.
As recently as last Friday, Trump was in the Oval Office, holding up a picture he received from the Kremlin. The image from Alaska shows him standing next to Vladimir Putin with Air Force One in the background. Two world leaders. Trump announced he planned to sign it for Putin.
"He (Putin) has always been very respectful towards me and our country," Trump said, adding, "But not so respectful towards others."
Not very respectful towards Trump's hopes of negotiating peace in Ukraine either, it seems.
Kiev has just experienced one of its worst nights. Russia launched 26 missiles and 598 drones in the dark, according to the Ukrainian military. Some reached their targets. An apartment building collapsed, with at least 14 people reported dead, including several children.
The EU's office in Kiev was also damaged in the attack, as was a building housing the British Council's office. The EU ambassador to Ukraine believes the attack was deliberately aimed at the EU.
It's not impossible. Since Trump's return as president, Russia has directed its harshest words towards Europe, rather than the U.S.
"The EU will not be intimidated. Russia's aggression only strengthens our resolve to stand up for Ukraine and its people," says Antonio Costa, President of the European Council, in a statement.
These are not words that scare Vladimir Putin. The EU is not an institution he respects. Quite the opposite. And what army does the EU have?
No reaction to the latest attack had come from Trump at the time of writing, the most extensive since he met Putin in Alaska two weeks ago.
That meeting alarmed European leaders, who traveled to Washington with Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a few days later.
The meeting at the White House resulted mostly in vague promises from Trump about future security guarantees for Ukraine. The summit Trump hoped for between Zelenskyy and Putin has not materialized, and there is currently no indication that it will.
The reaction in Europe after the Washington meeting was a cautious sigh of relief. Trump was flattered by the attention; he was not entirely enchanted by Putin again.
So it could have been worse. But – as Janan Ganesh points out in a column in the Financial Times – this state where Trump wavers back and forth, swapping threats for promises, sanctions for summits, is not what Europe needs.
It could even worsen Europe's readiness to prepare for the future. As long as there is hope that Trump will finally take a clear stand for Ukraine and Europe, European leaders do not need to make the tough decisions necessary for the continent to defend itself militarily against future Russian aggression.
There were truly dark days in February and March when Trump humiliated Zelenskyy in the White House and clearly bought into the Russian version that the war was Ukraine's fault, that they started the war.
The worst panic has subsided. There is hope that Trump will realize what a brutal butcher Vladimir Putin is and stand up for the values that have built the West and help Ukraine make continued war too costly for Russia.
Perhaps it will be so. But more likely, Trump will continue to swing back and forth, setting new deadlines that are then ignored. New angry words on Truth Social that never quite become reality.
"A world where Europe must fend for itself"
And then one day, perhaps he will tire and truly leave this to Europe. Janan Ganesh's point is that Europe should have long devoted significantly more energy and thought to preparing for that world, a world where Europe must fend for itself, even in terms of security policy and military, without the U.S.
But in Europe, France's government looks set to fall as early as next week, Germany's Chancellor Friedrich Merz is already more unpopular than his predecessor, and in the UK, Nigel Farage would become prime minister if there were an election today.
And in Kiev, the EU's office has just been bombed.