Trump's Submarine Threats: More Bark Than Bite

The two American nuclear submarines are reportedly 'in the region,' according to Donald Trump. However, this announcement holds little significance. Russia is always within reach of nuclear weapons from American submarines—and vice versa.

The statement sounds threatening, which is undoubtedly the intention behind Donald Trump's nuclear saber-rattling on Truth Social and his new comments about two U.S. nuclear submarines being 'in the region' around Russia 'where they need to be.'

This comes after Russia's former president, Dmitry Medvedev, issued his own threats on social media for the umpteenth time last week.

Trump's former national security advisor, the often hawkish John Bolton, has a point when he notes that the U.S. president should not react to such Russian comments.

It would be one thing if Russia's President Vladimir Putin made the threats, but Medvedev is a has-been, with no power other than to provoke.

"I don't know if he even understands what he's doing," Bolton told the New York Times about Trump's decision to send two nuclear submarines toward Russian waters.

"It's so natural for him to say exaggerated things that he's not capable of thinking through the strategic consequences."

It is worth noting that when Trump talks about nuclear submarines, he leaves it unclear exactly what type of submarines he is referring to. They may not necessarily be nuclear-armed.

All American submarines are nuclear-powered, meaning they are powered by nuclear reactors. This makes them quiet, able to stay underwater for long periods, and difficult to detect.

The U.S. always has some of these nuclear-powered submarines—armed with conventional weapons—near Russian waters. These could be the ones Trump is referring to.

The other possibility is that he ordered two nuclear-armed American submarines closer to Russia. But that would be unwise and counterproductive.

The U.S. has 14 Ohio-class submarines, armed with nuclear-armed ballistic missiles (the U.S. has over 70 submarines in total). Ohio submarines are the most lethal weapons humanity has developed.

Each submarine can fire 20 missiles, and each missile is equipped with up to 12 nuclear warheads. Each missile can thus hit 12 different targets.

These missiles have a range of over 11,000 kilometers. They can reach all of Russia from positions far out, deep in the Atlantic or Pacific Oceans.

That's where they usually operate. They move very slowly, staying submerged for up to 70 days, all to make detection difficult.

Sending two such submarines closer to Russia would increase the risk of detection and not make them more threatening to Moscow in any way.

Russia, of course, has its own nuclear-armed submarines. Not as many as the U.S., but a single Russian submarine, the latest being of the Borei class, can, if it fires all its missiles, hit targets in all 50 U.S. states with powerful nuclear weapons.

Donald Trump was once asked in 2015, ahead of the presidential election the following year, which part of the 'nuclear triad' he would prioritize. Trump's answer showed that he did not understand the question, not knowing what the triad meant:

When he first answered something completely different and then was pressed for an answer, he said:

"For me, nuclear weapons, their power and destruction are very important."

But the triad is about how the U.S.—and Russia—can launch their nuclear weapons. It can be done with aircraft, with intercontinental missiles based in silos, or with intercontinental missiles based on submarines.

Silos and aircraft can be knocked out and destroyed in a surprise attack. Submarines are almost impossible to detect and can thus retaliate even if one of the countries is devastated.

This was also what Medvedev hinted at in one of his tweets. Which Trump then chose to react to.

"Words are important, and can often lead to unforeseen consequences," Trump warned on Friday.

This applies even more to words from the U.S. president.