As the war in Ukraine nears its end, President Zelenskyj visits Washington with European leaders to seek security guarantees. Meanwhile, Trump pressures Ukraine to concede territory, while Putin demands more than just Crimea. The future of Ukraine hangs in the balance, with the risk of becoming a Russian puppet state if negotiations fail.
The End of the War in Ukraine: A Bitter Pill for Ukrainians
The End of the War in Ukraine: A Bitter Pill for Ukrainians
The end of the war in Ukraine is becoming visible, presenting a bitter pill for Ukrainians to swallow, hopefully not a deadly one.
These are decisive days. Following the meeting in Alaska on Friday, Volodymyr Zelenskyj is set to visit Washington on Monday, accompanied by a strong European delegation supporting him.
Zelenskyj has already arrived. No red carpet this time, unlike for Vladimir Putin.
After his meeting with Putin on Friday, Donald Trump has again put pressure on the Ukrainian president, effectively placing the responsibility on him to end the war.
The exact price remains to be seen, but there is little doubt that Ukraine will be forced to accept the loss of about 20% of its territory.
Trump suggested on Truth Social last night that ceding Crimea might suffice for a peace deal.
However, that's not the case. Putin wants much more, even more land than Russian troops currently control.
The focus is primarily on the approximately 25% of the Donetsk region that Ukraine still controls and continues to defend every inch of.
If Russia gains control of the remaining part of Donetsk in an agreement, Putin would achieve at the negotiating table what he has failed to take by force.
This is a significant Ukrainian defense line with fortifications and often favorable terrain. Losing this area would force Ukraine to quickly build new defense lines on less defensible ground.
Putin made it clear in Alaska that he has larger goals than just Ukraine.
It's hard to see how Volodymyr Zelenskyj could concede this and still remain as Ukraine's president. This is likely part of Putin's strategy.
Putin has always demanded the "de-Nazification" of Kyiv, a code for removing Zelenskyj and his administration and replacing them with a Ukrainian politician closer to Moscow.
However, the Ukrainian side has practically accepted that Russia will continue to control most of the territory currently occupied by Russians.
Ukraine is simply too weak to liberate the Kherson province or Zaporizhzhia. The goal is rather for the rest of Ukraine to survive as an independent nation, with the right to fully defend itself and with security guarantees from Europe and the USA.
These are the security guarantees that Zelenskyj and the European leaders hope to secure from today's meeting in Washington.
Trump has a tendency to be influenced by the last person he spoke with, as happened in Alaska. There, Trump abandoned the demand for a ceasefire followed by peace negotiations. Instead, he accepted Putin's demand for a peace agreement. The difference is critical.
In a ceasefire, weapons fall silent while parties negotiate peace. A peace that may never come, but which freezes the front, like the Korean War in 1953. There is still no peace agreement there.
If Putin gets his way, he can continue to press at the front and hope for military successes that increase the likelihood of a peace agreement on Russian terms.
And Putin made it clear in Alaska that he has larger goals than just Ukraine. It's about, as he has said many times before, restoring Russia's greater geopolitical role in Europe.
Or as Putin put it:
– A fair balance for Europe's security and the world must be restored.
Ukraine's future is now at stake. Either Kyiv survives the bitter pill as a shrunken nation but continues to exist as an independent state with clear guarantees from the West that deter Putin from attempting to conquer more.
This is practically what Zelenskyj, Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron, Friedrich Merz & Co are fighting for in Washington.
If they fail, the pill risks becoming a poison that kills independent Ukraine and instead creates a Russian puppet state of the approximately 80% not occupied by Russia.
This is what will happen if Putin gets his way, for example, by limiting the size of the country's military and installing a more Moscow-friendly president in Kyiv.