Sweden's MSB and Armed Forces have released a report outlining seven potential conflict scenarios, including military attacks on Gotland and airstrikes on civilian infrastructure. The report serves as a planning guide for Sweden's total defense strategy from 2025 to 2030, emphasizing the need for preparedness amid serious global developments.
Sweden Prepares for Potential Conflicts: Seven Scenarios Unveiled
Sweden Prepares for Potential Conflicts: Seven Scenarios Unveiled
Troops landing on Gotland supported by drones and fighter jets, or extensive airstrikes with missiles and aircraft against civilian infrastructure in Sweden. These are two of the seven scenarios listed by MSB and the Armed Forces in a new report.
"Preparing is not alarmism, it's responsibility," says Supreme Commander Michael Claesson in a statement.
"We are preparing together for the worst-case scenario: An armed attack on Sweden and our allies."
This is how the new report "Foundations for Total Defense 2025–2030" begins, which the Armed Forces and the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) presented to the government this week.
The report addresses the threat landscape against Sweden and will form the basis for how Sweden plans and develops its total defense over the next five years.
In other words, the report serves as a planning guide for everything from municipalities, regions, and authorities to companies and organizations.
"The global situation is serious and demands a lot from us as a country and as an ally. With the support of the described scenarios, everyone can translate the understanding of what is required into their own operations," says Supreme Commander Michael Claesson in a statement.
Attack on Gotland
The report lists seven possible scenarios for how Sweden could be drawn into a conflict.
The examples include conventional military attacks, cyberattacks, sabotage, information influence, terrorism, and economic pressure.
One scenario is a swift and effective Russian attack on Gotland. Hostile troops would be deployed from the air or sea, supported by naval and air forces. The purpose of such an attack would be to establish defense zones on and around Gotland by deploying air defense and other weapon systems as part of limiting NATO's actions in the Baltic Sea area, according to the report.
Airstrikes on Densely Populated Areas
Another example is titled "Remote Attack."
This scenario involves extensive air attacks with missiles, drones, and fighter jets primarily targeting military objectives on Swedish soil, but also civilian infrastructure, key individuals, or densely populated areas.
The latter could become a target to influence the population's will to defend.
The report notes that there is a risk of Sweden being drawn into conflicts through support to other countries or through a limited attack in northern Sweden.
Moreover, several of the scenarios could occur simultaneously.
Demands on Total Defense
The report concludes that civil society needs to be better prepared.
Total defense should withstand at least three months of war in Europe while transitioning to a longer period of conflict.
Civil operations need to manage at least two weeks independently under very strained conditions, such as during the initial phase of a war.
"With common foundations, all actors can plan based on their role and responsibility—from healthcare resilience and a functioning power supply to effective support for the military," says Mikael Frisell, Director General of MSB, in a statement.