Researcher on Weather Chaos:

"Will Happen More Frequently"

In Sweden, we have "buried our heads in the sand" regarding the impact of extreme weather on our infrastructure, says researcher Pär Blomkvist.

– And this will happen more frequently, he states. However, according to him, regular maintenance is not enough.

The weekend's rainstorm – with local amounts reaching up to 100 millimeters – in Västernorrland has had catastrophic consequences.

Roads have flooded and washed away, isolating entire villages, two trains have derailed, halting train traffic in large parts of central Norrland indefinitely, basements have flooded, and the water levels in the dam at Grössjön in Kramfors municipality have been so high that it risked bursting.

Consequences of the Rain Chaos

The difficult situation has affected everything from garbage collection to school transportation, and in Örnsköldsvik municipality, residents have been advised to boil their water due to flooding at a water facility.

But above all, it is the paralyzed train traffic that has societal consequences, especially for companies and their transports, which find it difficult to find alternative routes.

– The situation is very serious, says Stephan Ray, press manager at the logistics company Green Cargo, to SVT.

– It involves a lot of traffic that is crucial for the Swedish basic industry.

Poor Road Maintenance

But how could this happen?

When Infrastructure Minister Andreas Carlsson (KD) held a press conference on Monday afternoon, he talked about fragile infrastructure and a maintenance debt.

And Tina Thorsell, industry manager for roads at Transportföretagen, told Expressen that we are getting "a divided road country" in Sweden – with well-maintained roads in and around the big cities, and more neglected roads in the countryside.

– When the Swedish Transport Administration has not had sufficient financial resources, they have focused maintenance work on high-traffic roads.

Expert Criticism: "Not Understood"

But Pär Blomkvist, associate professor of industrial economics at Mälardalen University and researcher in the Mistra Inframaint project, has another explanation.

– We have not accounted for climate change. We thought it would take a long time for the climate to change, but what has happened now is that extreme weather has become the biggest enemy. This has not been fully understood, and the urgency of the situation has not been seen, he says.

– What used to be called 100-year rains are now happening more often.

Pär Blomkvist emphasizes that he is not an expert on what has happened specifically in Västernorrland, but says that there are generally "a lot of problems" with infrastructure maintenance.

Both of roads, railways, and the water and sewage system.

Would Wash Away Anyway

– This is what causes, for example, train delays, deficiencies in the road network, and leaks in the water and sewage network, that maintenance has been neglected for 60–70 years. But spontaneously, I would say that these extreme weather events would wash away a well-maintained road too.

So, according to you, it is not possible to "blame" this on the municipalities' and the Swedish Transport Administration's poor road maintenance in Norrland?

– No, I am not sure about that. However, one can blame the Swedish Transport Administration, and other agencies – and indeed all of us – for not understanding that this was coming, even though it has been warned about for 20–30 years. We have not accounted for climate events.

Who are "we"?

– Parliament, government, and the Swedish Transport Administration, of course.

Required Measures

According to Pär Blomkvist, accounting for climate events is something other than "the usual everyday maintenance debt." He believes that "proper measures" are now required – and that it will cost.

– We must reinforce extra much. We must build unnecessarily strong bridges, embankments, roads. But this is not a maintenance debt, but something that should have been started 20 years ago. But we have buried our heads in the sand, he says.

Pär Blomkvist believes that the worst consequence of the rain chaos in Västernorrland is that "an entire region is paralyzed," and says that trains are especially sensitive because they are difficult to reroute.

And if nothing is done, it can have "enormous consequences."

– But upgrading the road and rail network to withstand such disasters is difficult. I do not know if it is feasible.

Swedish Transport Administration's Response

When Expressen asks the Swedish Transport Administration how something like this can happen in Sweden, that roads are washed away and railways cannot be operated when it rains so heavily, press officer Peter Jonsson responds that it is something the authority is currently investigating.

– During the ongoing investigation of what has happened and what we could have done differently, we do not comment on this.

At the same time, SMHI will investigate why only yellow, and not orange or red, warnings were issued before the rain chaos.