How Long Can Putin Keep Provoking?

Russia is stirring up trouble, testing NATO's response capabilities and internal loyalty. The question is if and when the real challenge will come.

We find ourselves in a space between peace and war. This is uncomfortable for us, but not for Vladimir Putin, who thrives here, conducting our part of the world like his orchestra. The crescendo is approaching.

Russian drones flew over Poland and Romania last week, and yesterday, MiG-31s flew over Estonia. Twelve minutes in NATO-marked airspace is considered a very long and highly unwelcome visit. Later on Friday, Russian fighter jets also flew low over the Petrobaltic oil platform, located in Poland's economic zone in the Baltic Sea.

In the diary for September 19, 2025, we can summarize: Russia has taken another step up the provocation ladder.

That it was MiG-31s roaring over Estonia is no coincidence. The fighter jet can carry the feared Kinzhal missiles. They can reach the entire Baltic region and are difficult to detect and shoot down as they fly faster than any countermeasures and can change course on their way to the target.

The fighter jets had their transponders turned off—a now-standard Russian procedure—making communication with Estonian air traffic control impossible. F35 planes took off to meet and escort the planes back to Kaliningrad. Swedish incident preparedness was also activated, and several Gripen jets were in the air to ward off the uninvited guests.

It won't be long before they return. In some form.

Encounters in the air are threatening situations. The Russian planes fly heavily loaded, and the time when Swedish planes took off without full armament is long gone.

Estonia, like Poland last week, is now invoking NATO's Article 4 and gathering member countries for consultations. There is much to discuss.

Alongside the direct military violations, Russia continues its other pinpricks. One by one, irritating and unpleasant, together aggressive and dangerous.

Russia regularly disrupts civilian aviation's GPS systems and overloads government and corporate websites. This is done to disable important societal functions, lulling the world into a sense of never being completely safe.

From the Kremlin, influence and disinformation operations are simultaneously cast across our part of Europe.

According to the think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Finland is the target of the latest known operation. The Russian rhetoric has—ISW states—hardened in a way reminiscent of how it sounded before the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed this week that the Finnish government is driven by revanchism. Sergei Ivanov, another of Putin's closest, announced the same day that no Russian-Finnish relations exist anymore and will not be resumed as far as one can see. He also claimed that the Finnish population is deeply dissatisfied with their government, as the lack of Russian tourism has led to depopulation in eastern Finland.

"Middle Finger Raised"

Putin is provoking. He does it with his middle finger raised to his entire neighborhood and seems determined to continue. When confronted with facts, Russia denies and clings to the lie. Like Ambassador Sergei Sergeyevich Belyayev on SVT's 30 minutes when he claimed that the massacre in Bucha was staged by the Ukrainians themselves. I was there days after the Russians withdrew. I met the survivors, saw the bodies, the graves, and the destroyed houses. I have rarely heard such a degrading lie.

Now Russia also denies that the violation of Estonia's airspace took place. NATO propaganda, it is claimed.

Donald Trump has so far commented on the incident with the imprecise vocabulary we have become accustomed to when words are directed at the Kremlin.

"I don't like it... Could be big trouble."

The question now creeping closer is if, and if so when, the big test of NATO will come—the one where the musketeer article is tested.

Does the most sacred of all rules apply, one for all, all for one in the event of conflict?

Putin wants to know.

Step by step, he tests, listens, and analyzes all reactions.

So far, he can conclude: That went well.