Putin's Ambitions: The Black Sea Coast Revealed

A framed map hangs in the Russian Ministry of Defense in Moscow, revealing Vladimir Putin's true goal in Ukraine: control over the entire Black Sea coast.

European leaders are gathering in Paris on Thursday, either physically or digitally, to discuss the security guarantees Ukraine needs to confidently sign a future peace agreement with Russia.

Which countries are truly prepared to send troops? How many? These are the challenges that now need to be filled with concrete content.

U.S. President Donald Trump must be convinced that Europeans are genuinely ready to step in and take greater responsibility for Ukraine's and the continent's future.

Recently, images from Moscow have emerged, underscoring the importance for Ukraine to secure future protection against Russia.

For Vladimir Putin thirsts for more. And it's not just about the four Ukrainian regions that Russia has annexed: Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson.

The Russian Ministry of Defense doesn't even try to hide it. This is shown by the map hanging on a wall in the Russian Ministry of Defense.

The ministry itself released a film from a briefing where the map hangs slightly behind General Valery Gerasimov, Russia's highest-ranking military officer.

Attentive viewers noted on the social media site Telegram that a black line runs through Ukraine on the map.

And there, two more Ukrainian regions are separated from Ukraine: the Mykolaiv and Odessa regions.

If Russia were to gain control over these two regions as well, Ukraine would lose the entire Black Sea coast, and Russia's border would extend all the way to Moldova.

This shouldn't be too surprising, except perhaps for the Russian arrogance in showing the ambition so openly.

Vladimir Putin has repeatedly spoken of these areas as historically Russian. In December last year, he said this at his annual press conference.

• The entire Black Sea coast became Russian as a result of the Russo-Turkish War. What does Ukraine have to do with this?

• Odessa is a Russian city. Everyone knows this.

Vladimir Putin already spoke in 2014 about this area, which was conquered by the Russian Empress Catherine the Great at the end of the 18th century, and called the area Novorossiya – New Russia.

It is true that Odessa was founded as a city when the area was controlled by Russia, and it has always had a large Russian-speaking population.

There are historical ties to Moscow. But historical maps are a poor guide to how reality looks today.

If old maps are to be used as arguments, it opens a Pandora's box of conflicts. But thankfully, few Germans demand the return of Königsberg (today's Russian Kaliningrad).

Polish politicians do not dream of Lwow, and even fewer Austrians of Lemberg, the city that today lies in Ukraine and is called Lviv.

But Vladimir Putin cannot let go of history. The map at the Russian Ministry of Defense is a grim reminder of this.

Putin's dream of Novorossiya has, since the invasion of Ukraine, remained just that. A dream that the war has made even more distant to fulfill.

A properly conducted referendum in Odessa today would undoubtedly lead to a crushing defeat for Putin's claim that the city is Russian.

Reality – outside Russian maps – shows that Russian forces only control about 75 percent of the area in three of the four regions that Russia has annexed, and which on Russian state maps are now marked as Russian.

"A reminder for Europe's leaders"

Only Luhansk has been conquered. The fiercest battles are taking place in the Donetsk region, where the Russians are indeed advancing but at a pace slower than the changes on the Western Front during World War I.

And for Putin to conquer the Mykolaiv and Odessa regions, the Russians must cross the mighty Dnipro River or invade by sea from the Black Sea. Just about no one believes they are capable of that today.

But the map is a reminder for Europe's leaders of what Putin truly hopes the future will lead to. Ukraine needs no reminder.