Russia and Belarus have commenced a significant military exercise, Zapad 25, near NATO's eastern borders, raising concerns about potential provocations. Military expert Joakim Paasikivi warns of possible aggressive actions, reminiscent of past conflicts. The exercise occurs amid heightened tensions following a Russian airspace violation in Poland, prompting Poland to close its border with Belarus and deploy troops.
Paasikivi on Russian Military Drills Near NATO: An Attack is Possible
Paasikivi on Russian Military Drills Near NATO: An Attack is Possible
Just days after the Russian violation of Polish airspace, Russia and Belarus have launched a major military exercise along NATO's eastern flank. Military expert Joakim Paasikivi does not rule out the possibility that the exercise could be used for further provocative actions.
– Within the realm of possibility, a military attack is naturally conceivable, he says.
On Friday, Russia and Belarus began their large joint military exercise Zapad 25. The exercise lasts five days and takes place near the borders of NATO countries Estonia, Latvia, and Poland, as well as in the Baltic Sea, Barents Sea, and the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad.
The exercise has been conducted regularly since 1999, but this year's is the first since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
– The last exercise was Zapad 21, where they practiced near the Ukrainian border. It ended with equipment being left in depots and warehouses, which was later used in the invasion, says Joakim Paasikivi, a former lieutenant colonel and now a senior geopolitical advisor at the law firm Mannheimer Swartling.
Sensitive Timing
Zapad 25 occurs at a sensitive time – not least considering the Russian violation of Polish airspace earlier this week.
In response, Poland has closed its border with Belarus, something Russia has warned could have "consequences." Additionally, 40,000 Polish and NATO-allied soldiers have been deployed in the eastern parts of the country.
– This is a pattern recognizable from the Cold War days. From a period of less confrontation, we are now back to what was the norm then. Given that we have a hot war, there is a particular activity – the difference between an exercise and an attack is which direction you go on the last day, says Paasikivi, pointing out that the invasion of Ukraine was preceded by what Russia claimed was just an exercise.
Provocations Likely
On Friday, Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk emphasized that they are monitoring Zapad 25 "with particular attention."
– A potential adversary should not doubt that we are prepared for all possible provocations, said Tusk according to the Polish news site Nowiny24.
Joakim Paasikivi does not rule out that provocative actions may occur, such as airspace violations or deliberate incidents at sea.
– Within the realm of possibility, a military attack is naturally conceivable. But it would be remarkably foolish for them to do so since we are actually quite prepared for it, he says.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov claims that Zapad, which means "west" in Russian, is a defensive exercise and says it is "not directed against any other country."