A former Swedish Gripen pilot, Max Villman, discusses the challenges of countering Russian drones that recently violated Polish airspace. The incident, condemned by NATO countries, highlights the growing threat of drone warfare as Russia ramps up production.
Former Fighter Pilot on Countering Russian Drones
Former Fighter Pilot on Countering Russian Drones
A deliberate provocation by Russia or a calculated risk that could have resulted in casualties in Poland. That's how former Gripen pilot Max Villman describes the Russian drones.
"If many drones cross the border simultaneously, they can be quite difficult to combat," he says.
Recently, the Swedish NATO mission in Poland concluded. Gripen jets from two squadrons were ready to take off for such incidents as last night when Russian attack drones flew over the Polish border. Last night, Poland used its own F-16s, while the Netherlands contributed F-35 fighter jets. It has also been reported that Italian NATO aircraft participated in the operation.
The violation has been condemned by all European NATO countries, and Poland's Prime Minister Donald Tusk has stated that the country is now "closer to open war than at any time since World War II."
The drones that entered Poland were part of the latest major air attack on Ukraine, where Russia launched 415 drones overnight.
Former Gripen pilot Max Villman, who now runs a YouTube channel covering defense-related topics, does not believe it was a mistake by Russia.
"There were so many drones, and they flew so far into Poland that it is either a deliberate provocation or indifference, meaning they don't care if they fly into Polish airspace."
Flying Higher
According to Villman, Russia has changed the flight altitude of the drones. They now often fly at higher altitudes, making them harder to shoot down with cheap ground-based countermeasures.
"Now it requires either missiles or special attack drones to shoot them down."
At least 19 drones reportedly flew over the border.
Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, NATO has maintained high readiness in the air with so-called Combat Air Patrols (CAP) in border areas—a defense concept where multiple fighter jets continuously patrol an area.
Command and control aircraft, known as AWACS (Airborne Warning and Control System), are often used to guide the fighter jets and provide a long-range radar picture. According to Max Villman, this is likely how the Russian drones were located and countered.
"This type of slow-moving target can be difficult to detect with the fighter jets' own radar systems, which are primarily developed to locate fast targets."
According to Max Villman, a drone in itself is not an advanced target to shoot down, but if they come in swarms—as they seem to have done against Poland—the operation becomes significantly more complicated.
"It is crucial to have a lot of aircraft in the air simultaneously, but I suspect that by now, this has been practiced very thoroughly."
Building Drones at Record Speed
Since spring, Ukraine's intelligence service has warned that Russia is expanding its drone production at a rapid pace. The Russian version of the Iranian Shahed drones is now being produced at over 2,500 units per month.
By 2030, Russia is expected to produce around 150,000 drones per year.
"Unfortunately, this suggests that we will see more incidents of the type that occurred last night," says Max Villman.
Following the Russian violation, Poland has invoked NATO's Article 4 for urgent consultation with other member states. This has only happened seven times before in the alliance's history. NATO has approved the request.
Russia, for its part, denies intentionally violating Polish airspace.