Expert: Violations Could Be Part of Russian Hybrid Campaign

Russia's violations over Poland and Estonia may be part of a Russian hybrid campaign, says military expert Jörgen Elfving.

– I don't rule out the possibility of further violations both on land and at sea.

Four violations against three NATO countries in nine days.

Jörgen Elfving, a former lieutenant colonel, is convinced that at least two of them were intentional.

– It's a way for Russia to flex its muscles and provoke NATO, he says.

The large number of Russian drones over Poland makes it clear that these are not navigation errors, according to him.

– Similarly with the violation over Estonia. It involved three fighter jets and they were in Estonian airspace for quite a while, twelve minutes.

Sweden's Role Moving Forward

The timing is not easy to interpret.

– This could be part of a Russian hybrid campaign directed against the West. We don't know what it includes. But we've seen examples of sabotage in Europe, information influence operations, Russian espionage, and similar activities, says Jörgen Elfving.

NATO needs to strengthen its air defense, he believes.

– Both in terms of surveillance and the ability to respond to violations.

Sweden can play a significant role in this. Swedish Jas Gripen aircraft are well-suited for such events, according to him.

– We can redeploy them to be part of NATO's incident response, for example in Estonia or Poland, where we have been.

He does not rule out further violations on land or at sea.

– This means that readiness must also be increased in those areas.

“Knee-Jerk Reaction”

In the past week, the EU's plans for a 'drone wall' have gained prominence on the union's agenda. It would run from Poland in the south to Norway in the north via the Baltic countries and Finland, along the countries' eastern borders with Russia.

Exactly how the drone wall will look, function, and what it will cost is not clear.

But Jörgen Elfving is not entirely convinced of its effectiveness.

– It gives the impression of something impenetrable that stops all drones. But the experience from Ukraine is that despite countermeasures, a number of drones get through. The term drone wall is somewhat misleading.

Russia has consistently denied that these are deliberate provocations or violations.

– It's a knee-jerk reaction. You can't expect anything other than outright denial, says Jörgen Elfving.