A Russian airspace violation over Estonia lasted an unprecedented twelve minutes, raising concerns about the readiness of Estonia's air defense. Military expert Jörgen Elfving suggests the incursion was deliberate, possibly for intelligence gathering or to test NATO's response times.
Expert Labels Russian Airspace Violation in Estonia as 'Exceptional'
Expert Labels Russian Airspace Violation in Estonia as 'Exceptional'
The Russian violation of Estonian airspace lasted twelve minutes, an exceptionally long duration according to military expert Jörgen Elfving.
"It indicates that the Estonian air defense was not fully alert," he says.
Three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets breached Estonian airspace on Friday morning near the island of Vaindloo in the Gulf of Finland, approximately 60 kilometers from Tallinn.
This marks the third time in just a few days that Russia has violated the airspace of a NATO country. Last week, Russian drones intruded into both Poland and Romania.
Expert Assessment: Deliberate
What makes Friday's incident exceptional, according to former Lieutenant Colonel Jörgen Elfving, is its duration—the Russian planes were in Estonian airspace for twelve minutes.
"In most cases, airspace violations are very brief, often indicating an accidental entry into the wrong airspace. The fact that this intrusion lasted so long leads me to assess it as deliberate," he says.
"One should reasonably be prepared for some form of Russian activities in the airspace, given what happened in Poland. I cannot comment on the individual case, but the fact that it lasted as long as twelve minutes indicates that the Estonian air defense was not fully alert," he continues.
In 2015, Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet that violated Turkish airspace near the Syrian border. The lack of a similar response in this case may be due to different regulatory frameworks, Elfving explains.
"My view is that it takes a lot before resorting to lethal force," he says.
Multiple Intentions Possible
According to Elfving, there could be several intentions behind the violation.
"One purpose could be to conduct intelligence gathering to find out NATO's capabilities and response times. Another could be information influence—if NATO or the Estonian air defense reacts late or not at all, it could undermine confidence in them," he says.
What happens now?
"That question should be directed to the Kremlin. But I do not rule out the possibility of further violations, not only in the air but also on land and at sea," says Jörgen Elfving.