A new study warns of the growing risk of the Gulf Stream's collapse, which could lead to a major climate catastrophe for Sweden and the world. The critical point for this collapse may occur within the next 10 to 20 years, with severe global consequences including extreme weather in Western Europe and rising sea levels.
Critical Warning: Gulf Stream Collapse Could Occur Within 10-20 Years
Critical Warning: Gulf Stream Collapse Could Occur Within 10-20 Years
The risk of the Gulf Stream collapsing is increasing, according to a new study. This would mean a major climate catastrophe for Sweden and large parts of the world.
"We discovered that the critical point where the collapse becomes inevitable is likely to occur within the next 10 to 20 years," says Professor Stefan Rahmstorf.
In fact, it's not just the Gulf Stream that researchers are talking about, but the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (Amoc), one of the three major circulation systems in the world's oceans that includes the Gulf Stream.
A collapse of this large system would have enormous consequences for large parts of the Earth. The tropical rain belt—vital for millions of people to grow crops—would shift, all of Western Europe would experience extremely cold winters and summer droughts, while already rising sea levels would increase by another half meter, reports The Guardian.
According to researchers, the risk of the system collapsing before 2100 can no longer be considered low. Instead, climate models in a new study show that the critical point making a collapse inevitable is likely to be passed within a few decades, even if the collapse itself may not occur until 50 to 100 years later.
High Risk Even with Lower Emissions
The extent of the risk depends on what happens with carbon dioxide emissions. If emissions continue to increase, 70% of model runs show a collapse; at a medium level of emissions, the result was a collapse in 37% of the models. But even with low future emissions, the risk was significant: A collapse occurred in 25% of the models.
"These figures are not certain, but we are talking about a risk assessment where even a 10% risk of an Amoc collapse would be far too high," says Professor Stefan Rahmstorf at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, who participated in the study.
"It is a shocking discovery, and therefore we must act very quickly to reduce emissions."
Researchers have seen warning signs before.
"Observations already show a downward trend over the past five to ten years, in line with model forecasts. Even in some scenarios with medium and low emissions, the system is drastically slowed by 2100 and then completely shuts down. This shows that the risk of a collapse is greater than many realize," says Professor Sybren Drijfhout at the Dutch Meteorological Institute (KNMI), who was also part of the research team.
The study is published in Environmental Research Letters, and the climate models use the standard set by the UN's climate panel IPCC.